Biden’s promised strength among white working-class voters, for instance - but it was a warning sign. That pattern didn’t necessarily mean the polls would be wrong - it could have just reflected Mr. Clinton in the same places where the polls overestimated her four years earlier. And as Nate Cohn of the New York Times points out, that assumption could be wrong once again:Įarly in the 2020 cycle, we noticed that Joe Biden seemed to be outperforming Mrs. In other words, a lot of Democratic optimism is based on the assumption that 2022 polls are more accurate than 2016 or 2020 polls. The purely poll-based version of FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 forecast gives Democrats an 80 percent probability of maintaining control of the Senate, and a 39 percent chance of hanging onto the House.įor context, the polls are telling us that Democrats are doing nearly as well as Hillary Clinton was in the stretch run of the 2016 presidential race the most wildly optimistic midterms forecasts approach the landslide the polls told us Joe Biden was likely to win in 2020. Their candidates are leading solidly in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and narrowly in Georgia, Nevada, and Ohio they are also surprisingly competitive in polls of Florida and North Carolina. Democrats are also doing quite well in public polling of individual Senate races. But now Democrats have a 0.4 percent lead in the RCP averages, and a more substantial 1.3 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s averages. From November 2021 through July 2022, Republicans led in the generic ballot in the RealClearPolitics averages. But the belief that we are approaching an atypical midterm in which the president’s party might do pretty well is also based on polls - particularly the generic congressional ballot, an approximation of the national House popular vote. Some of Democrats’ recent optimism about the 2022 midterms stemmed from real-life developments, including overperformance by Democratic candidates in special elections and the palpable sense that the issue landscape after Dobbs ended federal abortion rights is significantly more favorable to them. Photo: Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images “Three important caveats: – 19 states still aren’t included on this chart because they haven’t finalized lines – Some included states, like NC/OH, could still be struck down/altered by courts – this chart doesn’t show two “safe flips” from Dem to GOP: #GA06 & #NC07,” he added.As the saying goes, elections results are the only polls that really matter. “Still a long way to go, but Republicans clear favorites for control,” Cook tweeted. Meanwhile, Arizona’s 2nd District and Michigan’s 10th District fall into the “likely Republican” category.Īnd with recently redrawn congressional lines, two previously safe blue seats - Georgia’s 6th and North Carolina’s 7th Congressional Districts - have been moved to safe Republican holds.Īdding to the big blue woes, in the “toss up” category, Democrats currently have eight seats in contrast to Republicans’ six seats.Ĭook Political analyst Dave Wasserman noted that things are still early and final maps have not been finalized which could potentially change the landscape. The ratings change released on Thursday shows Arizona’s 6th, New Jersey’s 7th and Texas’ 15th Congressional districts - all of which are held by Democrats - shifted into the “leans Republican” category. The Cook Political Report is projecting that Republicans have an advantage in taking back a majority in the House of Representatives during the coming midterm elections. The GOP need to flip just five seats to reclaim control of the lower chamber, with the party expressing optimism about their odds. Knives out in House GOP whip race over Electoral College abolitionĭon’t bet against the red wave, a top political handicapper predicts for 2022. House Democratic aide fired for allegedly working with Chinese Embassy Trump asks SCOTUS to block House panel from getting his tax returns Red wave?: House Dems Super PAC to spend $275K to save pol in blue upstate seat
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